Random Analytics

Charts, Infographics & Analytics. No Spinning the Data. No Juking the Stats

Month: May, 2013

Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographics (to 22 Jul 2013)

***** Please note that the infographics/charts of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus presented were updated with public source information to 0001hrs 21 Jul 2013 CET/EST *****

1 - H7N9_Infographic_130721

Infographic Details

There have been 134-cases reported in China, 43 of which have resulted in death. Although originating in Jiangsu there is one case reported in Taiwan without loss of life (my case numbers include known asymptomatic cases). The most recent onset confirmation occurred on 10 July in Hebei Province. The previous onset confirmation was 59-days previously from Beijing. The last fatality confirmation was on the 26 July via Xinhua.

To date 31.9% of all known cases have been fatal, close to a 1/3rd of all cases. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

The Ministry of Health and Chinese media confirmed that to 10 July there were 85 patient discharges which equates to a Case Recovery Rate of 63% (with every chance for a slight improvement). Asymptomatic cases remain at one (0.7%).

2 - CasesbyRegion_130722

Cases by Region (including Taiwan)

The case numbers presented here are correct to 20 July 2013 and include 135 known H7N9 victims. Although there have been 43 confirmed deaths to date I have only been able to verify 31 case fatalities. A recent Jiangsu study noted eight deaths to the 27 May (only four have been confirmed via a case fatality notification). Shanghai’s high Case Fatality Rate includes 16 confirmed case fatalities, the latest update via Xinhua was released 26 June.

Note: This infographic was created using Tableau Public.

Thoughts by Crawford Kilian

It’s one thing to analyse data and to draw a picture from it but you get real impact when you have more than analytical inputs to go by. Crawford Kilian’s comments and local knowledge via his H5N1 blog were just too good to not include in this piece. Here are his thoughts:

“The map in Shane’s post is a reminder that this weekend’s case is an outlier, geographically as well as seasonally. Hebei province almost surrounds Beijing, and if memory serves, that’s where the father of Beijing’s first case purchased the birds he hoped to sell in the capital.

Langfang, the city where the 61-year-old woman contracted H7N9, is no rural backwater. Wikipedia tells us that it has a total population of 3.85 million. An hour’s drive southeast of the Beijing airport, it’s part of the Beijing-Tianjin corridor, with no fewer than 30 universities and an economy based on computer technology. Another city in the corridor is Tangshan, which in 1976 suffered a catastrophic earthquake that effectively ended the Maoist regime and paved the way for over 30 years of explosive economic growth that changed the world.

My point is that the poor woman in critical condition in Chaoyang Hospital is not some faceless nonentity; she’s a real live human being, as real as everyone living between, say, New York and Boston or Seattle and Vancouver, or Riyadh and Jeddah. If she dies it will be a real death, not just a pixel or two winking out on a screen.

She does have some advantages, including a medical system primed and ready for her (imagine the panic if an H7N9 case turned up in Los Angeles or London). But she is still just a real human being. Statistically she may be one of the unluckiest people on the planet, but she’s a real person with a name and a family, and that is why we should all care about her fate.”

Final Thoughts

With infinite patience I’ve been awaiting the final case details of the H7N9 outbreak that commenced in mid-February and looked to have quietly disappeared in late April. Chinese and World Health Organisation media sources, so free with basic information at the start of the outbreak went quiet as the cases of H7N9 decreased. At the same time cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-COV) increased with a seemingly higher Case Fatality Rate (CFR), multiple source countries and scratchy reporting diluting attention from the much diminished H7N9.

Humanity has a great capacity for curiosity but it also can as easily get side-tracked or bored and lose focus on events if they move back into the shadows.

H7N9 hasn’t gone away and the latest onset, during the Northern Hemisphere Summer is a timely reminder.

Note: Bored with flublogia? Read my updated analysis and analytics of Ebola Random Analytics: Ebola (2013)!

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Note: If you are interested in getting a daily feed on this and other interesting related topics (such as the MERS-COV outbreak) then I would recommend you follow Crawford Kilian or read his H5N1 blog. If you are interested in more detailed analysis of H7N9 (and other viruses) from a medico rather than an analyst then I would recommend my fellow Queenslander Dr Ian M Mackay and his Virology Down Under blog.

Update (28/05/2013)

  • Updated main infographic with four additional recoveries and one confirmed death as reported by Xinhua.

Update (29/05/2013)

  • Updated main infographic and Map with additional Beijing case as reported by Xinhua.

Update (15/06/2013)

  • Updated main infographic with additional two deaths and one recovery as reported by Xinhua.

Update (21/07/2013)

  • Updated main infographic & map with additional case as reported by CHP and H5N1.

Update (22/07/2013)

  • Updated map with additional four verified Jiangsu fatalities via CIDRAP update.

Random Analytics: RDAF Rd 3 Funding Analysis (Final)

On 26 October 2012 the third-round of Regional Development Australia Funding (RDAF) grants were opened to Expressions of Interest and for those that were successful the full applications were to be submitted no-later-than 27 March 2013.

An overview as per the Department of Regional Australia, Local Government, Arts and Sport website:

Round 3 is providing $50 million for priority infrastructure in towns with a population of 30,000 people or less. Grants of between $50,000 and $500,000 are available to eligible applicants.

Local governments and not-for-profit organisations with an annual income of at least $500,000 (averaged over the most recent two years) were eligible to apply for Regional Development Australia Fund Round Three of the Regional Development Australia Fund. Other organisations were able to participate in the program as a member of a consortium led by an eligible applicant.

The Department announced the successful applicants with a comprehensive list of project financials and details on 24 May 2013.

Here is my analysis.

RDAF Round 3 Funding by State

1 - RDAFRd3FundingbyState_130528

The first infographic is funding by State.

Of the 79 RDAF Round 3 grants 18 are located in NSW, 16 in Queensland, 15 in Victoria, 12-each in South Australia and Western Australia, three in Tasmania, two in the Northern Territory and one in Australian external territory of Norfolk Island.

At 15-projects and $7,175,721 (23.2%) Victoria was the state given the most funding at an average of $478,381.4 per project. The Northern Territory had the least funding of any internal state or territory with two projects and $580,000 (1.9%). South Australia had the lowest grant average with 12-projects and $3,463,498 in funding, or $288,625 per project.

Of the $50-million on offer only $30,895,933 was distributed, a shortfall of 38.2%. Included in this amount Australian external territories (in this case Norfolk Island) also were granted one project worth $411,193 in funding.

Note: This infographic was created using Tableau Public.

RDAF Funding by Population Centre

2 - RDAFRd3FundingbyPopCentre_130528

This chart breaks down the funding by the size of the population centre that it is being deployed in. Population size is based upon Australian Bureau of Statistics Census 2011 data and then allocated to one of into five categories. The categories are:

  • Town: A town or a rural region with a population under 10,000
  • Regional Centre: A small city or rural centre with a population between 10,001 and 30,000
  • City: A city or regional centre with a population between 30,001 and 100,000
  • Large City: A city with a population between 100,001 and 500,000
  • Metropolis: Any city with a significant urban area greater than 500,000.

From the 79-projects and $30,895,933 which was allocated 75.4% went to towns under 10,000, 23% went to regional centres and only one project went to an area that I would consider a city and another was partially linked to a city, although the bulk of the funding went to surrounding towns. Details of the two issues are:

  • The Leopold Community Hub project won by the Greater Geelong City Council, an outlying suburb of Geelong which has a total population of 173,452 should not have been allowed to proceed on the basis that it is not a “located in a town with a population of 30,000 or less” as per the guideline Department criteria;
  • The Skate in the Tropics project won by the Cairns Regional Council included three small regional towns and an outer suburb of Cairns. Mossman, Babinda and Wonga Beach all qualify under the Department criteria; however Gordonvale falls into the significant urban area of Cairns with a population of 133,911.

Round 3 Funding by Political Party

3 - RDAFRd3FundingbyPolParty_130528

This chart looks at funding by political party.

The biggest winner from RDAF Round 3 was not a political party but Treasury which was able to not expend $19.1-million in revenue or 38.2% of the promised funding grants.

Of the RDAF Round 3 grants where funding was allocated 47 went to seats held by the Coalition, 26 went to Labor, there were three for the Independents (two for New England and one for Lyne), two for the Katter’s Australian Party and one to Norfolk Island which is party non-affiliated.

Of the $30,895,933 which was allocated seats held by Labor received $10.156-million (20.3%), the Coalition $18.157-million (36.3%) (split between the Liberal, Liberal National Queensland and National parties) and the minor parties and independents received $2.150-million (4.3%).

Round 3 Funding by 2PP

4 - RDAFRd3FundingbyMarginalSeat_130528

The next chart looks at funding by how safe the seat is (the Australian Electoral Commission states that Divisions with a 2-party preferred (2PP) percentile of 60% or greater are safe, those between 56 – 60% are fairly safe and those between 50 – 56% are marginal. Where a seat is considered marginal (based on 2010 election results) I have split into Labor, Coalition and Independent (to cover the seat of Denison).

From the 79 projects 41 are in seats considered safe, 12 are fairly safe and one was in a non-affiliated external territory.

25 grants are from marginal seats with a total funding allocation of $9.910-million (32.1%). The marginal seats were split 15 to Labor and ten to the Coalition. They include:

  • Blair: One project ($500,000) held by Labor;
  • Capricornia: Two projects ($734,203) held by Labor;
  • Canning: One project ($365,749) held by the Liberals;
  • Casey: One project ($300,000) held by the Liberals;
  • Corangamite: Three projects ($1,480,000) held by Labor;
  • Eden-Monaro: Two projects ($882,250) held by Labor;
  • Flynn: Two projects ($716,693) held by the Liberal National QLD Party;
  • Gilmore: One project ($400,000) held by the Liberals;
  • Herbert: One project ($450,000) currently held by LNQ;
  • La Trobe: One project ($500,000) held by Labor;
  • Leichardt: Two projects ($615,000) held by the LNQ;
  • Lingiari: Four projects ($1,099,870) held by Labor;
  • McEwan: One project ($500,000) held by Labor;
  • McMillan: One project ($490,000) held by the Liberals
  • Page: One project (425,500) held by Labor;
  • Paterson: One project ($450,000) held by the Liberals.

Round 3 Funding by Electorate

5 - RDAFRd3FundingbyElectorate_130528

The second last chart looks at funding by Electorate.

48-electorates won funding as part of the RDAF Round 3.

The most funding awarded to a Coalition held seat is O’Connor (WA), with four projects and $1,555,300 dollars in funding. Given that Tony Crook was elected to Parliament on a National Party ticket but considers himself an independent the next best Coalition seat is Durack (WA) with three projects and $1.5-million in funding.

Corangamite was the highest funded Labor seat with three projects and $1.48-million dollars in funding.

As for the Independents, New England currently has the most funding with two projects worth $500,000 apiece.

Round 3 Funding by Regional Development Australia (RDA) Region

6 - RDAFRd3FundingbyRDA_130528

The final chart looks at funding by RDA Region.

45 out of 50 RDA regions who were able to apply for funding received a project as part of RDAF Round 3. Capital cities, representing six regions were not allowed to apply for funding in this round.

The most funding awarded to a region was shared between Lodden Mallee (VIC) and Barwon South West (VIC) with three projects and $1.5-million dollars in grants, followed closely by the Grampians (VIC) with three projects and $1.48-million in grants.

Final Thoughts

The Regional Development Australia Fund Round 3 was setup to allocate much needed funds to genuinely regional centres and to respond to criticisms of previous rounds where funding had gone to cities over regional centres and dominated coastal regions over the interior.

The positives out of this round is that the funds have been equitably distributed on many of the normal indicators and where there is a higher ratio, they are within acceptable margins and should be an expectation of incumbency.

Although I hesitate to make a criticism, I feel obligated given the funding shortfall of nearly $20-million dollars which has not been widely publicized, nor adequately explained by the Department or by the relevant Ministers. That amount of funding would have supported another 40 plus projects in the bush and regions.

I’m empathetic of the Federal treasuries structural budget issues but the RDAF funding rounds were a $1-billion dollar programme designed to support one-off projects and tens of thousands of jobs in some of Australia’s most regional and economically disadvantaged areas.

It is ironic that on the same day as the RDAF Round 3 funding was publicized Ford announced that it would stop building cars in Australia. This announcement was soon followed with an immediate pledge of $39-million by the Federal & Victorian governments to support the 1200 employees of Ford, a company which has received more than $1.1-billion in tax-funded support over the past 12-years.

 

Declaration of Interest: I have utilised only publically sourced information and all analysis and views expressed are my own and do not reflect that of any employer or organisation that I am associated with.

Note: My previous post on RDAF Round 1 & 2 funding can be found at Random Analytics: RDAF Funding Analysis

 

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Updates (16/06/2013)

  • The RDAF Round 3 analysis was returned to the Random Analytics site at the commencement of RDAF Round 4 announcements.

 

Random Analytics: Mining – A Dangerous Business (China to 14 May 2013)

On Saturday 11 May 2013 around 2pm in the afternoon more than 100 Chinese miners toiled in the depths of the Taozigao coal mine in Sichuan province unaware that within minutes they would be subject to a gas explosion brought on by a build-up of gasses from poor ventilation in an illegal operation. 28 would subsequently die and another 18 would be wounded, at least eight critically. Barely 24-hours prior to this incident another gas blast would kill 12 and injure two in the neighbouring province of Guizhou.

Dual incidents of this magnitude were enough to get global press including a mirrored story via Australian Mining which reported the initial incident.

A previous Xinhua story had some interesting (and sobering statistics). They include:

  • Mine accidents killed 37 workers for every 100-million metric tonnes of coal produced in 2012, down from 56.4 for 2011 but well above the US which reported 1.9 in that same year;
  • 1,384 fatalities occurred in Chinese coal mines in 2012, down from 1,973 in 2011;
  • 93% of coal gas blasts were caused by poor ventilation.

China is acknowledged by many to be the most dangerous place on Earth to work in mining.

Now putting aside the fact that Xinhua is the official Chinese media outlet I thought I would do some digging into the safety record of Chinese mines and (time permitting) keep track over it over the course of 2013.

Here is my analysis.

1 - ChinaMiningDeathsbyProvince_130515

Map Details

Just looking at Xinhua data to 14 May there have been 28-major incidents which include 336-fatalities and 160-injuries. Due to a lack of follow-up reporting by Xinhua there are at least 42-people unconfirmed as either dead or rescued from various floods and collapses, although I hope to follow this up by interrogating provincial newspapers.

The single largest incident was that of a landslide in Tibet which buried 83-miners of the Jiama Copper mine under 2-million cubic metres of mud and rock on the 29th March. This single incident also confirmed Tibet as the province with the most confirmed fatalities to date.

The South West province of Guizhou had the most reported incidents with seven separate incidents and a combined fatality count of 70. The most serious incident from Guizhou was a colliery gas blast at the Machang mine which left 25-dead and a further 20-injured.

Both North East and South West Regions recorded 10-incidents each. The South West Region (which includes Tibet) had the worst data, recording 189-deaths against the North East which had 112-deaths.

The most recent incident reported via Xinhua was covering the gas blast at the illegal Taozigao coal mine on the 12th May 2013.

2 - ChinaMiningDeathsbyResource_130515

Fatalities by Resource

Coal continues to be the most dangerous resource to mine in China with 240-deaths, almost 3 out of every four reported fatalities occurring via that commodity. Additionally, with 25 out of 28 incidents attributed to coal it also made up 89.3% of all reported incidents to date.

Copper was the second most dangerous resource by numbers with 2 incidents (7.1%) and 86-deaths (25.6%). Although we are not yet half-way through the year I believe that percentile will come down over the course of 2013 given that 96.5% of that commodities fatalities came from a single incident, the Tibetan landslide, which even by Chinese standards was unprecedented.

With one carbon monoxide poisoning incident (3.6%) and 10-deaths (3%) gold was the only other commodity to have a significant reportable incident.

3 - ChinaMiningDeathsbyMonth_130515

Fatalities by Month

The final graph looks at reported mining deaths by month including provisional numbers for the current month.

Not including May the incident average for the first four months is 6.5 while the monthly average for deaths is at 74-deaths. Interestingly the incident variation is tight (between 5 and 8) while the fatality variation is more diverse (between 22 and 155).

Final Thoughts

Without discussing censorship, there is no doubt that the numbers I have discussed here only scratch the surface of Chinese mining fatalities.

A commonality of the 28 incidents reported by Xinhua was that they covered incidents with three or more persons. Thus, a huge amount of individual deaths and injuries that can happen on any mine in any part of the world including Australia go unreported by the national Chinese media.

Another factor would be illegal mining. At least two incidents and 40-deaths that were recorded occurred in illegal mines, potentially unknown to Chinese officials until a major rescue effort was required.

That aside, everything that I discover about China is big.

Unfortunately that also includes fatality counts in its mining industry.

Updates (15/05/2013)

  • Added Fatalities by Month chart.

Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographics (to 15 May 2013)

***** Please note that the infographics/charts of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus presented were updated with public source information to 0001hrs 16 May 2013 CET/EST *****

1 - H7N9_Infographic_130516

Infographic Details

Between 12 – 16 May there have been no new reported cases of H7N9 and a drip feed of case and fatality details. To date the totals for China are 131-cases including 36-deaths and Taiwan 1-case without loss of life. Two deaths were confirmed on 13 May without details and the first confirmed fatality from Hunan was reported on 15 May. Note that all totals include asymptomatic cases.

To date 27.3% of all known cases have been fatal, or more than one in every four afflicted by H7N9. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

The Ministry of Health and Chinese media confirmed that to 15 May there have been 61 patient discharges (46.2%). Asymptomatic cases remain at one (0.8%).

The most recent fatality (with details) reported by the Chinese media was on the 15th May 2013 via Xinhua.

2 - CasesbyRegion_130516

Cases by Region (including Taiwan)

Along with a decline in cases there has been a drip-feed of case details that have flowed through during the week. Note: I have two confirmed deaths that I cannot add as the province has not been disclosed.

The last confirmed onset that I could see has moved from Fujian to Jiangxi and it’s more than a week old in the regional extremities of the outbreak. Shanghai, the region which hosted the outbreak in mid-April announced during the week that it had not had a confirmed case in more than 20-days and was in the process of dismantling its emergency level response to H7N9.

Note: I have created this infographic using Tableau Public software which can be viewed here.

3 - CasesbyEmployment_130513

Cases by Job-Title

Here is another look at the cases by employment.

Given that more than 44% of cases were in patients over the age of 65 it’s no surprise that 35 (28.8%) of job titles are ‘Retired’.

To tenuously back the avian link the next largest job title was ‘Farmer’ with 26 confirmed at 19.7% of all cases. If you include those job-titles with linkages to farming, poultry production and food preparation that number would increase to 38 making it the most dominant employment type at 28.8%.

Of the 31 unknown job titles, 12 (9.1%) are represented by people over the age of 65, thus would predominately fall into the ‘Retired’ or ‘Farming’ employment types depending on whether they are rural or urban based.

Note: My previous post on H7N9 can be found at Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 8 May 2013)

Updates (13/05/2013)

  • Confirmed two additional job titles (1x Builder and Farmer) so updated both the infographic and Cases by Job-Title.

Updates (14/05/2013)

  • Updated the main infographic after a further 2 fatalities and 15 recoveries were confirmed via Xinhua.

Updates (16/05/2013)

  • Updated the main infographic and Cases by Region map after a fatality was confirmed via Xinhua and a further four recoveries were announced via CCTV News. The most recent Xinhua announced fatality link was also updated.

Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographics (to 8 May 2013)

***** Please note that the infographics/charts of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus presented were updated with public source information to 0001hrs 9 May 2013 CET/EST *****

1 - H7N9_Infographic_130508

Infographic Details

In the past 48-hours of reporting there has been one new case of H7N9 and one retrospective fatality. This brings the total for China to 131-cases including 32-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without loss of life. Note that all totals include asymptomatic cases.

To date 24.2% of all known cases have been fatal. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

The Ministry of Health also confirmed that to 6 May there were 42 discharges. That keeps the recovered total to 42 (31.8%) and asymptomatic cases at one (0.8%).

The most recent fatality (with details) reported by the Chinese media was on the 3rd May 2013 via Xinhua.

Economic Impacts of H7N9: Direct Costs and The Poultry Industry

According to the World Bank, China’s Gross Domestic Product hit $7.318-trillion USD in 2011, making it the second largest economy on the globe. Back in 1982 China had a GDP of $203-million, a mere 1/36th of its current size, thus an economy that has doubled in size more than six times.

Last year China’s economy grew by 7.9%, the weakest result since 1999 and below expectations.

The first quarter of this year was expected to see growth rates return to 8% or greater. This would be driven by internal consumer consumption over exports. However the first quarter of 2013 disappointed with GDP growing by 7.7%, again under expectations.

Although the avian influenza A(H7N9) virus is not the reason the Chinese economy has been soft it is a contributing factor. Some considerations when considering direct costs:

  • Effecting flu controls on the human and fowl populations such as the additional ¥303M ($48.6M USD) which was put up by the Chinese Ministry of Finance in late April;
  • Subsidizing the poultry industry as it struggles with the outbreak, like the ¥90M ($14.6M) from the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Agriculture again in late April;
  • Additional medical costs and insurance for regional populations costed to the Ministry of Finance, and;
  • One of the biggest direct costs of the H7N9 outbreak is the loss suffered by the poultry industry. By mid-April that agriculture component stated that it has lost approximately ¥10Bn ($1.6Bn USD) as chicken consumption halved and chicken/egg prices collapsed.

If the figures are not overstated then the impact to the first and second quarter GDP figures would be at a cost of between 0.1 and 0.15% with a work-in-progress cost to the economy of between 0.2 – 0.3% over the calendar year. Although future poultry losses would not be of that magnitude (as the poultry industry ramps down production and concentrates on protecting its breeding stocks) that number will still likely increase to some degree over the coming months. The standalone poultry industry losses to mid-April alone could account for the 0.3% minimum underperformance of the Chinese economy.

Looking at this from a different angle there is also currently an unrealised loss in terms of the overall chicken population value.

In brief, the Chinese chicken population in 2009 was 4,680,000,000. Here’s a great infographic via The Economist:

2 - CountingChickens_110727

Prior to the outbreak becoming known in China the national average broiler price (chickens raised purely for meat production) was ¥9.37 (source: Beijing Shennong Kexin Agribusiness Consulting). At publication date the average price of broilers across Liaoning, Shandong, Henan, Hebei and Jiangsu was just ¥4.07 (source: www.chinafarming.com), effectively a 56% reduction. Eggs have had a similar price decline and broiler chicks around 75% as agribusiness pends new stock purchasing and waits out the virus .

Now I know that not all chickens are broilers (being an owner of nine-chickens and a rooster myself) but with a huge appetite for chicken which is on-hold and an approximate 10-week lifespan of broilers the short-term price impacts of such a decline are a huge drag on first and second quarter Chinese GDP growth numbers.

Another consideration: Taking the 2009 chicken population number of 4,680,000,000 as a base, the bulk of chickens across the country would now be worth, on average, ¥5 less. Thus the national stock, minus protected and virus free breeders could be worth as much as ¥23.4Bn (approx. $3.74Bn USD) less than it was two months ago. If not for other inputs (such as an increase in vegetable prices against the gains in chicken import prices) then the possible impact on GDP could be doubled or even tripled.

In summary, the impacts of the current H7N9 outbreak on the economy are still short-term. Prices always recover when there is a market but by the time the virus passes and confidence returns to the poultry industry the national stock will have decreased, poultry producers have gone out of business and outside of imports the industry will take at least 3-months to re-stock. This will drive up prices in the short-term and those direct impacts will flow through the economy.

Much like the medical unknowns still in play the economic impacts can only be forecast.

Unlike the medical impacts which are tracked on a daily basis and could disappear overnight the negative economic impacts of the virus could be sustained for many months.

 

Note: My previous post on H7N9 can be found at Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 6 May 2013)

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Update: (30/07/2013)

  • World Poultry published an article on 29 Jul 2013 stating that:

“The total losses of poultry-related companies all over the country up until the end of June exceeded 600 billion yuan ($92.2 billion) since the first case of H7N9 virus was discovered by the authorities at the end of March, according to the latest statistics from the National Poultry Industry Association.”

In my article I envisaged that the loss for the first and second quarters of Chinese GDP would be between 0.1 and 0.15%. The National Poultry Industry Association total would equal 1.26%. Industry bodies tend to overstate the loss in a crisis so I am still confident in my original forecast but happy that the first numbers to be discussed fell well within a reasonable range of error.

Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographics (to 6 May 2013)

***** Please note that the infographics/charts of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus presented were updated with public source information to 0001hrs 7 May 2013 CET/EST *****

1 - H7N9_Infographic_130507

Infographic Details

In the past 24-hours of reporting there has been one new (retrospective) case of H7N9 and confirmation via the Chinese Ministry of Health 4 additional fatalities. This brings the total for China to 130-cases including 31-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without loss of life. Note that all totals include asymptomatic cases.

To date 23.7% of all known cases have been fatal (an increase of 2.9% from yesterday’s data). For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

The Ministry of Health also confirmed that to 6 May there were 42 discharges. With that update the recovered total now moves to 42 (32.1%). Asymptomatic cases remain at one (0.8%).

The most recent fatality reported by Chinese media was on the 3rd May 2013 via Xinhua.

2 - CasesbyRegion_130507

Cases by Region (including Taiwan) to 6 May 2013

I usually don’t repeat the second infographic from one night to the next, however some data came in via the Chinese Ministry of Health which included four new deaths confirmed by province (although not down to case level at this stage). Two additional fatalities were reported in Jiangsu and one each in Zhejiang and Anhui.

Although recoveries have been revised upwards I cannot confirm to case level the details of 14-cases and 5-cases cannot be confirmed to province or municipality level.

Two other changes with this infographic. The first is a colour scale to reflect the number of cases in each region. Secondly, I have created this infographic using the excellent Tableau Public software which can be viewed here. (Note: I have no commercial or personal relationship with Tableau).

Note: My previous post on H7N9 can be found at Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 5 May 2013)

Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 5 May 2013)

***** Please note that the infographics/charts of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus presented were updated with public source information to 0001hrs 6 May 2013 CET/EST *****

1 - H7N9_Infographic_130506

Infographic Details

In the past 48-hours of reporting there has been one new case of H7N9 with no new fatalities. This brings the total for China to 129-cases including 27-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without loss of life. Note that all totals include asymptomatic cases.

To date 20.8% of all known cases have been fatal. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

There were 2 discharges over the past 24-hours, both from Shanghai. With the additional two discharges the recovered total now moves to 38 (29.2%). Asymptomatic cases remain at one (0.8%).

The most recent fatality reported by Chinese media was on the 3rd May 2013 via Xinhua.

2 - CasesbyRegion_130505

Cases by Region (including Taiwan) to 5 May 2013

Here is a look at the Cases by Region data which closes out Week 11 of the avian influenza A(H7N9).

Zhejiang continues to have the most cases (46) with 19 recovered and six deaths.

With 33-cases and 13-deaths Shanghai has the most deaths and the highest Work-In-Progress Case Fatality Rate, currently 39.4%. That municipality also had the first case.

Beijing still has the only confirmed asymptomatic case.

Taiwan has the only non-mainland China case, that of a man who was working in Jiangsu and flew home before displaying any symptoms.

Fujian had the most recent confirmed case.

Lastly, for the first time since the H7N9 became a known issue there are now more case outcomes than there are patients being treated. Of note is that positive outcomes outweigh negative outcomes.

Note: My previous post on H7N9 can be found at Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 3 May 2013)

Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 3 May 2013)

***** Please note that the infographics/charts of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus presented were updated with public source information to 0001hrs 4 May 2013 CET/EST *****

1 - H7N9_Infographic_130504

Infographic Details

In the past 24-hours of reporting there have been no new cases of H7N9 and no new fatalities, although the 27th fatality (without specifics) was reported by Xinhua. This brings the total for China to 128-cases including 27-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without loss of life. Note that all totals include asymptomatic cases.

To date 20.9% of all known cases have been fatal. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

There were 10 discharges over the past 24-hours, all from Zhejiang and just 17-hours after I discussed the lack of detail from that province. Although Xinhua detailed the case of Cao it didn’t provide any detail of the 9 other outpatients discharged today. With ten H7N9 cases cleared that would bring the total recovered to 36 (27.9%). Asymptomatic cases remain at one (0.8%).

The most recent fatality reported by Chinese media was on the 3rd May 2013 via Xinhua.

2 - CumulativeCases_Zhejiang_130504

Zhejiang: 17-hours later

Yesterday I looked at cumulative cases for Zhejiang, the most impacted to date by H7N9.

At that time there were 46-cases with 6-deaths and 6-recoveries and no new reported cases in 14-days.

How 17-hours can make a difference.

There have been only two Xinhua H7N9 stories released in the past 24-hours. The first confirmed the 27th fatality but did not provide details of the two most recent victims. The second story detailed the recovery of Cao who had recovered from the severest of symptoms thus far.

It also stated:

Nine other H7N9 patients were also discharged on Friday from the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University.

I have updated yesterday’s chart with the data input provided. I’d advise that this is a look at the cases, fatalities, recoveries and Work-In-Progress (WIP) Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for Zhejiang only and might be useful. Given the percentile of known H7N9 cases for Zhejiang are very low and those still receiving treatment remains above 50% the CFR should be seen as a useful guide only. Also of note is that Zhejiang has had no reported asymptomatic cases and as shown in the daily infographic we still have a ‘Fog of Flu’ or a lack of data around three-deaths and 12-recoveries which may impact this chart.

No data points jump out at me, but…

A long time ago I was a soldier, a communicator and a Cold War warrior who trained up against the best the Soviets were still pumping out in 1989/90.

I always remember my first ‘operational active’ exercise where I watch the Vladivostok fishing vessels trailing our combined fleet and being told that though most of this peace time force would be going through the motions, my efforts were real.

I was told that everything communicated was tracked, analysed and would be brought up in future operations. There were no ‘co-incidences’ in data…

Zhejiang had no new data for 2-weeks as of yesterday. It has some today.

Coincidence?

I’ll not leave it on a semi-pseudo conspiracy theory. I had a fantastic 3-tweet conversation with Crawford Kilian today. He stated that I was more literate but I would counter that he has a unique ability to be a superbly interesting chap on Twitter.

3 - @Crof

Note: My previous post on H7N9 can be found at Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 2 May 2013)

Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 2 May 2013)

***** Please note that the infographics/charts of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus presented were updated with public source information to 0001hrs 3 May 2013 CET/EST *****

1 - H7N9_Infographic_130503

Infographic Details

In the past 24-hours of reporting there have been no new cases of H7N9 and as many as two fatalities, although only one death was fully reported via Xinhua. This brings the total for China to 128-cases including 26-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without loss of life. Note that this includes asymptomatic cases.

There have been a number of reports, supported by organisations such as CIDRAP and FluTrackers.com which put the number of fatalities at 27. Given that only one fatality was identified on the 2nd May and the numbers seem to be including that person on top of the 26 announced via  Xinhua in a weekly update I am going to keep my number at 26 until further information can be verified.

To date 20.2% of all known cases have been fatal. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

Although there were no new announcements on discharges today a weekly report stated that 26 people had recovered from the disease. That would increase the recovery number to 26 (20.2%) and asymptomatic cases at one (0.7%).

The most recent fatality reported by Chinese media was on the 2nd May 2013 via Xinhua.

2 - CumulativeCases_Zhejiang_130503

Cumulative Cases (Zhejiang)

Yesterday I looked at cumulative cases (just cases and deaths) across the entire H7N9 dataset.

Today I thought a look at the cases, fatalities, recoveries and Work-In-Progress (WIP) Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for Zhejiang only might be useful. Given the percentile of known H7N9 cases are very low and those still receiving treatment remains just below 70% the CFR should be seen as a useful guide only. Also of note is that Zhejiang has had no reported asymptomatic cases and as shown in the daily infographic we still have a ‘Fog of Flu’ or a lack of data around two deaths and three recoveries which may impact on this chart.

Two data-points jump out at me.

Firstly, would be the lower WIP CFR of 13%, much lower than the entire disease average which stands at (20.2%) today.

The second and more interesting data-point is that after a sharp rise in cases between 2 April and 18 April (where new cases reported averaged 2.3 per day) there have been no cases reported now for 14-days.

I have always thought that data that is 100% correct or 100% absent is unusual and worth looking into further.

The fact that there has been no data from Zhejiang for two weeks is ‘unusual’.

Note: My previous post on H7N9 can be found at Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 1 May 2013)

Updates (3/05/2013)

  • Updated Infographic section with note about 27th fatality.

Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 1 May 2013)

***** Please note that the infographics/charts of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus presented were updated with public source information to 0001hrs 1 May 2013 CET/EST *****

1 - H7N9_Infographic_130502

Infographic Details

In the past 24-hours of reporting there has been one new case, reported from Hunan Province and for the second consecutive day, no new fatalities. This brings the total for China to 128-cases including 24-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without loss of life. Note that this includes asymptomatic cases.

To date 18.6% of all known cases have been fatal. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

There were no new announcements on discharges today. With no new data the current count of recoveries remains at 25 (19.4%) and asymptomatic cases at one (0.8%).

The most recent fatality reported by Chinese media was on the 29th April 2013 via Xinhua.

2 - CumulativeCases_130502

Cumulative Cases

Here is a look at the cumulative cases, fatalities and current Case Fatality Rate (CFR). Given the percentile of known H7N9 cases are still receiving treatment remains above 60% the CFR should be seen as a useful guide only.

Two interesting data-points from this chart. The first is that the cumulative cases have only increased by 10 over the past five days, averaging just 2 a day over a territory larger than South Africa and a population of more than half a billion.

The second item is that since mid-April the Case Fatality percentile has remained steady between the ranges of 18.3% – 22.2%.

What will tomorrow bring?

Note: My previous post on this can be found at Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 30 Apr 2013)