Random Analytics: H7N9 by Employment (to 250 confirmed)

by gmggranger

The Avian Influenza A(H7N9) continues its steady attrition.  According to Flutrackers there have been 358-cases of H7N9. With Wave 1 (45) and Wave 2 (32) fatality counts as confirmed by Xinhua my unofficial fatality total stands at 77 (a Case Fatality Rate of 21.5%).

While updating the most recent case details to my personal H7N9 Db today, a 29-year old female from Changsha, Hunan I noticed that we had reached an interesting milestone. Of the 358-cases thus far I have now been able to confirm 250 of their job titles.

Let’s look at the data to data.

1 - JobTitle_H7N9Top20_140218

Looking at the Job Titles we still find that the leading data item (occupation) is Farmer (35.6%), then Retired (24.4%) then the two paediatric titles of Primary School (5-12) and Child (0-4) with a combined total of 21 (8.4%). I’ve now been able to record 40 different titles with the top half accounting for 61.2% of the entire data, the bottom half just 8.6% and unknown 30.2%.

Some further points of interest:

  • In Wave 1 (to case #136) Farmers represented 28/136 of all cases (20.6%). Currently in Wave 2 there have been 222 cases of which 61 were Farmers (27.5%);
  • The current average age of the H7N9 impacted Farmer is 62-years while the average age of all H7N9 victim is 54.5-years;
  • The average age of a H7N9 Retiree is 70.4;
  • In Wave 1 Paediatric cases (0-15) represented 7/136 of all cases (5.1%). Currently in Wave 2 there have been 15-cases (6.8%) which shows a slight increase;

2 - JobFamily_H7N9_140218

When we role all the Job Titles into a Job Family the top-3 groups are Non-Participatory (26.5% comprising children, retirees and the unemployed), Farming, Fishing & Forestry (25.4%) and then Food Preparation & Serving (5.3% including catering, chef/cook, food sales, live poultry trade & market vendor).

Of interest:

  • The first two groups have remained largely unchanged in 2014 but the Food Preparation & Servicing group has been steadily declining in recent weeks (down from 6.9% recorded on the 1st February);
  • Only one Healthcare Practitioner (an ER Surgeon from Shanghai) has been recorded;
  • Along with the single Healthcare Practitioner recorded, no Healthcare Support (Enrolled Nurses, Vet Assistants or Orderlies) or Protective Services (Police, Ambulance, Fire & Wildlife Rangers) have yet been recorded equating to just 0.3% of all cases. A marked contrast to MERS which as Ian M. Mackay noted on 5 February 2014 Health Care Workers accounted for 18% of all cases and 2.7% of all deaths;
  • The average age of all H7N9 victims without a job title is 57.

3 - MainJobs_H7N9_140218

Last chart is a look at some main Job Titles in a running total. I’ve included child cases up to the age of 15-years in response to some of Ian M. Mackay’s concerns about an increasing paediatric count.

Given that those unknown job titles cases have an average of 57-years I believe that Retirees are somewhat underreported but given the older age of Chinese farmers it’s hard to estimate a breakdown without some local knowledge (of which I don’t possess).

FINAL THOUGHTS

Without wishing for more H7N9 cases I’ll plan for another employment update as I confirm the first 300 Job Titles.

There is a lot of interesting data in the first 250 Job Titles that I have been able to confirm. I only wish we had some more clarification on the almost 1/3rd of missing data items.

I’ll continue to scrabble for information as it comes in. Public sourced journals with detailed case studies are excellent sources and I am sure we will be seeing some of the Wave 2 case studies in coming weeks and months.

About these ads